Walk me through the major oil shocks — how did they hit sectors, credit spreads, commodities, precious metals, and equities? What parallels exist today?
Oil Shocks: Cross-Asset AnalysisInteractive analysis of 7 major oil shock episodes (1973-2022) and their cross-asset impact on equities, credit, gold, rates, and inflation -- with parallels to March 2026 conditions.Interactive microsite
Oil Shocks Cross-Asset Analysis - Interactive Microsite HTMLmicrosite.html145.2 KB
Oil Shocks Master Timeline (1986-2026): Oil, S&P 500, Gold, Credit Spreads01_master_timeline.png270.2 KB
Oil Shock Scorecard: Cross-Asset Impact Heatmap02_shock_scorecard.png112.7 KB
Sector Performance During Oil Shocks03_sector_performance.png92.1 KB
Oil Price vs Credit Spreads: Stress Transmission04_oil_vs_credit.png138.3 KB
Oil vs Gold: Flight to Safety Dynamics05_oil_vs_gold.png158.4 KB
Oil Shocks and Inflation Pass-Through06_oil_inflation.png181.7 KB
Cross-Asset Monthly Correlation Matrix (2000-2026)07_correlation_heatmap.png111.7 KB
Oil Shocks, Interest Rates & Volatility08_oil_rates_vix.png236.5 KB
Research README: Oil Shocks Cross-Asset AnalysisREADME.md6.7 KB
Oil Shocks: Cross-Asset Impact Analysis & Modern ParallelsInteractive analysis of 7 major oil price shocks (1973-2022), their cross-asset transmission through equities, credit spreads, gold, and inflation, with similarity scoring against March 2026 conditions.Interactive microsite
Inside the Ninth Oil ShockA rebuild of the oil-shock research through September 2026. The March vintage asked what parallels existed; a Hormuz closure since 28 Feb has made that question obsolete. Nine episodes measured on one standard, the March call graded, and one finding with no precedent: markets absorbed it.Interactive microsite
Oil Shocks 2026 — full research bundle (scripts, processed data, charts, README)oil_shocks_2026-09.zip1.2 MB
Oil shock magnitude vs real equity return — 2026 is alone in the absorbed quadrant02_shock_magnitude_vs_equity.png148.2 KB
Moody's Baa−Aaa quality spread, 1919–2026 — today is the 2.2nd percentile06_credit_risk_107yr.png119.3 KB
Inside the Ninth Oil ShockA rebuild of the oil-shock research through September 2026, corrected after an adversarial verification pass. Nine episodes on one measurement standard, the March call graded against the archive, and one finding with no precedent: markets absorbed the largest physical supply disruption on record.Interactive microsite
4 rounds · 114 tool calls · 10 files edited · 13 artifacts